MLB best bets: Picks, totals and predictions for Wed. 7/10

Dodgers vs. Phillies

Wednesday, July 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Under 9.5 (-130, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Cristopher Sanchez has been a key pitcher in the exceptional Philadelphia Phillies rotation. He has a 2.96 ERA against a 3.52 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity is under 88 MPH with an above average Hard-Hit Rate.

His Walk Rate is also under 7%, but his key ingredient is keeping the ball on the ground, where he ranks in the 96th percentile. This will be a great neutralizer against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.

Gavin Stone goes for the Dodgers on Wednesday. He has 3.03 ERA and 3.75 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity is below 88 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 83rd percentile.

He does not strike many hitters out and does, at times, have issues with walks, but he has been a solid starter.

The Dodgers have a 132 wRC+ off of lefties in the last month. Yes, this lineup is potent, but Sanchez is the guy who can keep them off balance and get out of jams via the ground ball.

In relief, the Phillies have a 2.98 ERA in the last month, so basically, anyone who enters the game out of the bullpen is reliable.

The Dodgers have had their issues in relief, but Stone can pitch deep enough to relieve some of the pressure with logging innings against this Phillies team with a 113 wRC+ off of righties in the last month.

Yes, both teams have been strong at the plate lately, but quality pitching should overcome hitting in this one. Bet the under from 9.5 down to 8.5.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-130 at FanDuel | Bet to 8.5 at -110)

Dodgers vs. Phillies

Wednesday, July 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Under 9 (+102, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

I completely understand why this total has to be a high number: these are two of the best lineups in baseball. With that said, if sportsbooks are going to return even money on nine runs in a pitching matchup between Gavin Stone and Christopher Sanchez, I'm going to take the bait every time.

Stone is 9-2 this season with a commanding 3.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also strong as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.

On the other hand, Sanchez has arguably put together an even stronger campaign. He is 6-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

The southpaw ranks in the 67th percentile or higher in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.

Finally, both bullpens rank in the top six of the league in ERA. Considering these variables, I think it's worth taking a shot on both pitching staffs to relatively keep these lineups at bay.

Pick: Under 9 (+102 at DraftKings)