3 factors that could influence House of Representatives election

A Democratic majority may be possible but don't expect the competitive races to run through Ocean and Monmouth County's this year.

As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has sunk in the polls in the past two weeks, Democrats are now pondering what seemed impossible a few months ago, the prospect of recapturing the House of Representatives.

The party is hoping Trump will bog down down-ballot candidates in the November election, creating an opening for Democratic candidates in districts that are usually not competitive.

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U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone, D-NJ, said last week after a news conference in Asbury Park that Clinton would need to win by at least 7 or 8 points nationally to give Democrats a shot at the House, which they lost control of during the 2010 midterms.

But most seats in the Garden State are unlikely to change hands, regardless of the margin in the fall election, according to political observers.

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According to Patrick Murray, Director of Monmouth University's Polling Institute, the only true competitive race in New Jersey this year is the 5th district race between U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer.

The race has garnered national attention and both candidates have raised substantial funds this cycle. According to the Center for Responsive Politics website OpenSecrets.org, Garrett had about $2.7 million in cash-on-hand at the end of June, compared to $2.5 million for Gottheimer.

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3 factors that could influence control of the House of Representatives.

1. Gerrymandering
   • Most districts in the House are drawn to favor incumbents, and Republicans were able to redraw the maps in their favor after winning a majority of state legislatures in 2010. 
   • Most seats in New Jersey remain safe for incumbents, with the exception of the 5th district seat in North Jersey, according to Murray. 
2. A Clinton Blowout 
   • If Hillary Clinton wins by a substantial number, over 7 to 8 points, according to Pallone, Democrats may have a chance at the majority of the 435 seat chamber. 
   • A recent Monmouth University national poll showed Clinton with a 13 point lead over Trump. Clinton drew 50 percent of the vote compared to 37 percent for Trump among likely voters. 

   • "She would need a huge win in order to have the kind of coattails that would bring some leaning Republican seats into the Democratic fold," said Murray. "Even with that kind of win, it wouldn’t add anything from New Jersey. She could win New Jersey by 25 points and still the 5th district would be the only one that would have been competitive.   

3. Split ticket voting
   •  Voters  dissatisfied with the presidential candidates could vote one way for president and select another party for Congress. 
   • "If you’re a Republican and don’t like Trump, you may well vote for Clinton and go back and vote Republican for everybody else," said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University."But Hillary Clinton is really not liked by a lot of Republicans." 

Austin Bogues abogues@gannettnj.com; 732-643-4009

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