The US election will pit two presidents against each other — but the familiarity of the likely candidates is doing little to help predict a winner.
American voters are not excited about a rematch between the incumbent, Joe Biden, and the former president Donald Trump, meaning that turnout, which was 62 per cent in 2020, could well be a decisive factor.
Trump, 77, has a loyal and enthusiastic base of support but has alienated much of the electorate, while Biden, 81, may struggle to enthuse sufficient voters to ensure a second consecutive victory, with his advanced age and frequent gaffes causing growing concern.
It is also possible that independent and third-party candidates could play a role in determining the result. They include the environmental lawyer Robert F Kennedy Jr, the veteran Green Party campaigner Jill Stein and the left-wing academic Cornel West.
How does the electoral college work?
Rather than going by who wins the national popular vote, the US uses an electoral college to pick the president, assigning a certain number of electors to each state based on the size of its population.
Advertisement
There are 538 electors in total, so to win a candidate must receive a majority of at least 270 electoral votes. Biden won in 2020 by 306 to 232.
California has the most electors, at 54, one fewer than last time based on a redistribution that affected 13 states using new data from the 2020 census. Texas has the next highest with 40 electors (up two), followed by Florida’s 30 (up one) and New York’s 28 (down one). Pennsylvania, which was vital to Biden’s victory in 2020, has 19 (down one). The redistribution slightly favoured Republican-voting states by a net gain of three electors.
Who will win the 2024 US election?
The two main parties confirm their candidates at their national conventions — the Republicans anointed Trump on Thursday, and Biden is still in place for the Democrats at theirs in mid-August— and the general election on November 5 is likely to be close. Unlike in 2020, when Biden was always some way ahead of Trump in polling, Trump has held a small lead for much of 2024.
Individual polls suggest that the race is very close. Analysis by FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator, has shown Trump having a lead of about one point for most of the year. Trump was widely expected to see a boost after he survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. However, a Morning Consult poll of more than 2,000 registered voters, taken two days after the attack, showed Trump and Biden still locked in a close race.
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating has for some weeks lagged behind Trump’s at the same stage of his presidency, suggesting it will be a challenge to convince voters to re-elect him.
Which swing states could decide the US election?
Advertisement
In truth, nationwide polls are fairly meaningless. In some states, like California, Biden will win comfortably, while the reverse will be true in others such as Alabama or Louisiana. It is in the handful swing states — those that tend to change their mind — that the election will be decided. No Democrat since 1948 has won the White House without picking up Pennsylvania on the way, for example.
The most closely watched states will be those that essentially decided the 2020 election by flipping from Trump in 2016 to Biden. Alongside Pennsylvania they are Arizona (11 electoral college votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10).
Other battleground states will be keenly fought over because they were close in 2020, notably North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Nevada (six).
A recent poll for The Times by YouGov, which surveyed voters in each of these seven states at the start of July, found that Trump was ahead in all of them, with leads ranging from one to seven percentage points.
• Read about the swing states in more detail
Advertisement
Presidential elections always throw up surprises and there are plenty of potential banana skins coming over the next few months for both candidates. The performance of the economy, US involvement in the war in Gaza, changes to abortion laws and developments at the southern border will all play a role.
• What will happen if Trump returns to the White House?
• What will Biden do if he is re-elected?
One factor that it is known about is Trump’s criminal cases — in particular, the Stormy Daniels hush money trial, in which he was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first former president ever convicted of a crime. Before that verdict, 53 per cent of voters in the crucial swing states said they would not back Trump if he were found guilty, including 23 per cent of Republicans.
Meanwhile, his criminal case in Florida, where he was accused of mishandling classified documents, has been dismissed by the judge.
Could third-party candidates decide the US election?
Another unpredictable factor in the 2024 election will be the role played by third-party candidates, especially Kennedy, who is drawing support in excess of 10 per cent in some national polls.
Advertisement
When voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable view of Kennedy, a majority are in the former camp. Polling in April by CNN/SSRS suggested that Trump would beat Biden by six percentage points if they were the only two candidates, and by nine points if Kennedy was also on the ballot as an independent.
Third-party candidates have played important roles in close American elections, notably in 2000, when Ralph Nader of the Green Party took votes from the Democrat Al Gore, including in the vital state of Florida, allowing George W Bush to claim the White House.
Some Hillary Clinton supporters blamed Stein for taking away support in swing states Clinton lost to Trump in 2016. Stein’s return this year is adding to Democratic nervousness in 2024.
