Donald Trump is expected to announce his choice of running-mate today.
The decision, which appears to be between three candidates, is one of the last remaining pieces of the presidential election jigsaw before voters go to the polls in less than four months.
The former president could yet spring a surprise but a trio of men have emerged as frontrunners after being asked for paperwork by the Trump campaign as part of the intense vetting process: JD Vance, a senator for Ohio; Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota and Marco Rubio, a Florida senator.
• Trump ‘to announce VP pick’ — follow latest
On Monday, the first day of the Republican national convention, Trump told Fox News that he was ready to unveil his pick.
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With Trump restricted to one further term in the White House, whoever is chosen to serve as his vice-president will immediately become favourite to be the party’s candidate in 2028.
Besides the three frontrunners, several others have been asked to provide the Trump campaign details, indicating that they have not been ruled out, including the South Carolina senator Tim Scott, the Florida congressman Byron Donalds, the New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik, and Ben Carson, who was Trump’s secretary of housing and urban development.
Notable absentees from this group included several rivals from the primary campaign: Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor; Nikki Haley, the former North Carolina governor; and Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech millionaire.
Others that have been tipped at one time or another include:
• Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota;
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the Arkansas governor;
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, the ultra-loyal but unpredictable Georgia congresswoman;
• Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas;
• Tulsi Gabbard, a former Hawaii congresswoman who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 before leaving the party two years later.
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A key criterion for Trump’s assessment will be extreme loyalty, which the frontrunners have been keen to display by attending Trump’s Manhattan hush-money trial or appearing at his campaign rallies.
Here, we break down the pros and cons of the most likely contenders.
JD Vance, 39, senator from Ohio
Pros: A staunch defender of Trump on cable news, he has established his ultra-loyal credentials and his Senate seat should be a hold for Republicans as Ohio sheds its former swing state status and trends red.
Cons: Has a past record of criticising Trump, saying in 2016 that his policies “range from immoral to absurd”. He now campaigns with the zeal of the convert. Another doubt raised this week has been about his personal grooming. “JD has a beard,” an unnamed “Trump confidant” and Vance supporter told the Bulwark this week. “But Trump is a clean-shaven guy. He just doesn’t like facial hair.” Has Vance’s beard trimmed his chances?
Likelihood rating: 4/5
Doug Burgum, 67, North Dakota governor
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Pros: A self-made software billionaire who also founded a property development company, Burgum brings the kind of business world experience that Trump admires.
Cons: He was invisible in the Republican primary debates, when not even crutches and a medical boot on his torn Achilles brought him much attention. But maybe his low profile will appeal to Trump too. As a governor, he has cracked down on abortion, making it all but illegal in North Dakota since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade two years ago. Trump, who has a more liberal stance on abortion, may fear the hardline approach is too off-putting to independent voters.
Likelihood rating: 3/5
Marco Rubio, 53, senator from Florida
Pros: The son of Cuban immigrants, he could help with Trump’s appeal to Hispanic voters.
Cons: Another critic turned cheerleader, he campaigned against Trump for the 2016 nomination. He is, like Trump, a resident of Florida; the US constitution bans a single state from voting for both president and vice-president, raising the prospect that a Trump-Rubio ticket would have to win without Florida’s electoral college votes. Trump held a rally in Miami this week and name-checked Rubio at least half a dozen times — if it was going to be the senator, would Trump have announced it in his own backyard?
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Likelihood rating: 3/5
Elise Stefanik, 39, congresswoman from New York
Pros: A Donald Trump loyalist who served on his impeachment defence team, Stefanik gained national attention when she put three female university presidents on the spot over antisemitism on campus, resulting in the resignations of the leaders of Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania.
Cons: Little-known nationally, and her background as a moderate raises suspicions of opportunism by jumping on the Trump bandwagon.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
Tim Scott, 58, senator from South Carolina
Pros: The only black Republican in the Senate could help Trump peel away African-American voters from President Biden. The South Carolina senator, a Christian who dropped out of the Republican primary race in November, is well-liked and offers a more optimistic, unifying vision of America than Trump does.
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Cons: Scott ran a poor campaign for the Republican nomination and was steamrollered by rival candidates, raising questions about his readiness for the big stage.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
Ben Carson, 72, former housing secretary
Pros: The retired surgeon is one of America’s most prominent black conservatives and could boost Trump’s appeal to African-American voters. He has a track record of loyalty as one of the few Trump cabinet members to serve the whole term in the same job.
Cons: At 72, Carson might be considered too old to complement Trump, who will be 78 on election day. He has been accused of hypocrisy for supporting gun rights despite the non-violence of his Seventh-day Adventist beliefs.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
