Even if the International Criminal Court agrees to issue arrest warrants for the prime minister and defence minister of Israel, neither man is likely to stand trial.
Israel is not a signatory to the ICC’s Rome Statute and is under no obligation to hand over its leaders. Yet if the judges grant the request of the British prosecutor Karim Khan, it would put severe restrictions on the ability of Binyamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, right, to visit the 124 countries that are signatories.
The warrants would have much less impact on the three Hamas leaders also named by Khan, who are unlikely any time soon to be in a country where they could face arrest.
Khan’s statement is nevertheless a blow to the Israeli leader. It puts him on a similar standing to the Hamas leaders who directed the October 7 massacre and to President Putin, against whom an arrest warrant was issued last year for abducting children from Ukraine and taking them to Russia.
Most of Israel’s allies, including the United Kingdom, are ICC signatories and would find it hard to continue dealing with the prime minister if the warrants were issued.
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It is also a further blow to Israel’s international legitimacy, already greatly diminished, to continue pursuing the war against Hamas in Gaza. Israel’s most important ally, the United States, is not a signatory but Netanyahu has hardly been welcome in the White House since President Biden was elected.
On one level at least, the ICC prosecutor’s statement will be of benefit to Netanyahu. It will allow him in Israel — where his popularity has fallen since the war began — to portray himself as a martyr being persecuted by a biased court for standing up for his country’s interests.
Even his political opponents cannot accept that Israel’s prime minister can be accused along with Hamas leaders. Despite their criticism of how he has handled the war, on this they will have to rally around him. Who knows, he may even get a small temporary boost in the polls. But it is likely to be no more than short term.
Netanyahu has always claimed to be a master statesman, capable of putting Israel’s case to the world and making the deals and alliances necessary for a small country to survive and prosper in a hostile environment. An ICC arrest warrant, no matter how unfair his and Israel’s supporters may think it is, would mean an end to his long diplomatic career. Israel will not be able to afford to have an ostracised leader, incapable of visiting world capitals. Netanyahu now symbolises pariahdom and ultimately Israelis will have to replace him as their leader.
