Education officials in Edinburgh are “scenario-planning” for an influx of private pupils into state schools if the new Labour government adds VAT to fees.
Nationally, data show there are enough spaces in state primaries and comprehensives for all of the nearly 29,000 students who are educated independently in Scotland.
However, when examined at local authority level, capacity is already stretched in many of the communities where the most children who go private live. This includes Edinburgh, where 9,300 pupils attend fee-paying schools, but 70 per cent of its state schools are operating at 90 per cent, or higher, capacity.
The Times has collated the data from local authorities revealing the most private school students, and the least space in their state schools. You can see your local authority in the interactive charts below.
Edinburgh council drew up an official report this spring on the shortage of spaces in its schools. Officials in the Labour-run local authority acknowledged there is always some uncertainty on the number of children they need to plan for.
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“One issue currently being analysed is the potential for increases in school capacity which may be required in the future if VAT is added to school fees in the independent sector and this means additional pupils will require to be accommodated in the council’s learning estate,” the report said.
“Part of this process will be scenario planning using the new school projections. Briefings for elected members will be provided as necessary as this workstream progresses.”
The council insists it does not expect its schools to be full — and education insiders across Scotland say there is often wriggle room in how many pupils they can squeeze into a primary or comprehensive.
However, ten of the 23 secondaries in the capital had rolls above capacity in 2022, according to the latest available data from the Scottish government.
Lorraine Davidson, chief executive of the Scottish Council of Independent Schools, said some children leaving the private sector for the public are already struggling to find places near their homes or with their siblings.
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She said: “It is meaningless for families to be told there is overall capacity in the state system. For example there is a fourth-year pupil who has been told their nearest seven secondary schools in Edinburgh are full, and families in East Dunbartonshire have had to send their children to different state schools because of lack of places in certain year groups.”
East Dunbartonshire has nearly 880 children who attend a private school, often in neighbouring Glasgow — far fewer than in larger council areas. But the local authority is already facing huge demand for its suburban comprehensives, seven out of the eight schools in the area are operating at 90 per cent, or higher, capacity, according to government figures.
In its manifesto Labour said it would end VAT exemption for private schools and end rates relief, something that has already happened in Scotland.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said this would raise about £1.6 billion — far more than the cost of accommodating children who switch from private to state schools.
• Our children are at private school — here’s how we’ll keep paying the fees
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Sir Keir Starmer, speaking at the end of last month, said he did not believe any schools would close because of his policy. “I think they will adapt,” he told Sky News. “They’ve had lots of increases in costs over the last 14 years and they’ve accommodated it.
“There’s no evidence to show these schools will close. They don’t have to pass the cost on to parents.”
He added: “We need to make this choice, because in the end, if I want the teachers we need in our state secondary schools, I have to answer the question you would put to me, just how are you going to pay for that?”
But bodies representing private schools north and south of the border say the effect of this policy will be uneven and will hit smaller, specialist institutions more than the larger, more prestigious “public schools”. This, they argue, could have a knock-on effect on the state sector.
Davidson added: “The Scottish Council of Independent Schools is seeking early discussions with Labour to discuss how to minimise the disruption to pupils by the imposition of VAT on school fees.
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“It is important to recognise the distinctive nature of the sector in Scotland, where business rates relief doesn’t apply, and families don’t have the same income levels as in the south of England.”
Asked about capacity problems, East Dunbartonshire’s chief executive Ann Davie said her council had “a clear procedure in place to manage catchment pupils entering our schools”.
• Labour’s VAT hike on private school fees explained — and can you avoid the rise?
A spokeswoman for Edinburgh council said officials were projecting for 13,000 free spaces in August 2025 across their estate.
She added: “In total we have 114 primary and secondary schools and out of them only one primary school is projected to be over capacity in 2024 and in 2025 there could be just three primary schools. None of our secondaries will be over capacity.”
