As plans were under way for Sir Keir Starmer’s first outing on the international stage at the Nato summit in Washington, there was an expectation in Whitehall that he would use the opportunity to outline plans to increase defence spending.
The prime minister had pledged during the election campaign to set out a pathway to raising the defence budget from 2.3 per cent of national income to 2.5 per cent as he stressed Labour could be trusted to keep Britain safe.
However, Starmer surprised civil servants inside the Ministry of Defence this week by putting off the plan to outline billions more pounds for the department and tying the decision into a major strategic defence review. The move means it could be months before the timeline for hitting 2.5 per cent is announced.
Coming under pressure from all fronts to hand over money, Starmer, a lawyer by profession, has chosen to remain cautious at every turn. The new government believes the review is an important part of the roadmap to hitting the target. It wants to work out what is needed over the coming years and what year to reach the goal. One defence expert said it was a defendable position because the government needed to work out “where we are to come up with a timeline”.
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Yet with the war in Ukraine showing no sign of abating and the potential for the conflict in Gaza to explode into Lebanon, some politicians argued now is not the time for Starmer to delay a commitment to defence.
A succession of former military chiefs have warned Britain is not ready for war against a country such as Russia. The army is at its smallest size since the Napoleonic era, ships keep breaking down and there are not enough pilots for RAF planes. Without any new money for the Ministry of Defence there are concerns that plans for new Type 32 frigates and fighter jets could have to be cancelled because of huge projected overspends in the RAF and Royal Navy. The army budget for modernisation has already been raided this year to pay for other programmes.
As James Cartlidge, the shadow defence secretary, warned in a letter to Healey on Tuesday, the armed forces needs the certainty and clarity on its funding in order to “plan and prepare for the future”.
“It is necessary to prepare everything from accommodation and benefits for service personnel to ensuring that they are equipped with the latest capabilities, equipment and technology,” he wrote. He also pointed out that the previous Conservative government, which committed to 2.5 per cent and set out a clear timeline for achieving it by 2030, factored in more aid to support Ukraine.
Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, said it was key that the defence review concluded before the comprehensive spending review, where the Treasury will set out detailed funding for government departments. If the review comes too late, then the MoD will miss its chance to secure any meaningful increase to its budget despite the more dangerous world.
