Hurricane Beryl weakened slightly as it battles wind shear in the Caribbean Sea, but National Hurricane Center forecasters said it's expected to remain a powerful and devastating storm as it passes near Jamaica Wednesday afternoon.
UPDATE: Beryl's Gulf track shifts north as 'heat dome' erodes. What's that mean for Louisiana?
With sustained winds of 145 mph, Beryl had weakened to a Category 4 storm by Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. update. Beryl made history on Monday as the earliest Cat 5 storm ever to form in the Atlantic.
A look into the eye 👁️ of Hurricane Beryl today. Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, though it was downgraded Tuesday to Category 4.
— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) July 2, 2024
For up to date forecasts visit https://t.co/96ZlCzpVcZ#hurricaneberyl pic.twitter.com/Dd81YzOuuM
Hurricane forecasters said Beryl's decline over the last day is thanks in part to a moderate northwesterly shear in the Caribbean, which some models show significantly increasing over Beryl in the next 24 hours, rapidly weakening the storm. But with other models showing a very different wind pattern, forecasters said Beryl's intensity forecast remains uncertain.
"The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions and general weakening through 48 hours," hurricane specialists Lisa Bucci and Eric Blake wrote in the 5 a.m. update.
Hurricane Beryl is still, however, expected to bring devastating winds, life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and damaging waves to Jamaica Wednesday afternoon and the Cayman Islands early Thursday. Hurricane warnings are in effect in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane watch is in effect in portions Haiti and the Yucatan Peninsula.
The storm is expected to pack similarly powerful winds when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday. A tropical storm watch is in effect in those areas.
Beryl headed for the Gulf
Hurricane Beryl's track beyond the few days remains uncertain, forecasters said Wednesday.
Here's why:
- There could be a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. that has been steering Beryl, which should turn the storm northwest.
- While some models show a more northern turn, others continue to show Beryl moving more west toward Mexico.
- The National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. "cone of uncertainty" track now shows Beryl making landfall as a tropical storm near the Mexico-Texas border early Monday morning.
Beryl to re-strengthen in the Gulf
After hitting the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday, Beryl is expected to hit the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. Fueled by the Gulf's warm waters, forecasters said the storm is likely to regain hurricane force as it moves generally west or northwest.
The National Hurricane Center's cone shows Beryl reaching hurricane status again early Sunday before dropping back to a tropical storm at landfall on Monday.
People who live in Mexico, Texas and Louisiana should continue to monitor Beryl's movements at hurricanes.gov.
Don't miss a storm update this hurricane season. Sign up for our free Hurricane Center newsletter.