Conflict marred more countries last year than at any time since World War II

There were more countries engaged in conflict in 2023 than at any time since World War II. Across the world, 92 countries are now involved in conflicts outside of their borders, according to new data from the Institute for Economics & Peace.

The IEP’s annual Global Peace Index report found that violent conflict has been on the rise in recent years, reversing the historical trend of recent decades.

In 2022, 92 countries were involved in at least one internationalised intrastate conflict, up from 59 in 2008. 

“There are worrying signs that militarisation is likely to increase in the near future,”  said Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP.

“The very high number of smaller conflicts means that the risk of an outbreak of more major conflicts is higher now than at any other point since the inception of the index”. 

The number of conflicts  – driven mostly by civil war – grew throughout the Cold War period and then broadly declined over the period of globalisation from the mid-1990s onward. 

However, after the global financial crash in 2008/9, conflict has picked up again markedly – this time led (just as it was in the 1930s) by conflict between states. 

But although conflicts are again on the rise, deaths from conflict remain low in historical terms.

The report found that the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Ethiopia had pushed conflict deaths to a 30-year high of around 200,000 a year in 2022 but this is just a fraction of what it was for much of the later half of the last century.

“Although the number of deaths from armed conflict is now at a 30 year high, the total number of conflict deaths remains considerably lower than at many points in the post-World War II era,” say the authors.

They add: “The average number of deaths per year between 1946 and 1999 was almost 210,000, compared to just under 69,000 per year between 2000 and 2022.

“However, the trend is on the rise again and given the increasing big power rivalries there is a real risk of a return to the level of fatalities seen in the Cold War era”.

There has also been a considerable shift by region, with more middle ranking economies becoming involved in conflict.

“The most striking example of this is in sub-Saharan Africa, where 36 of the 42 countries in the region were involved in at least one external conflict between 2018 and 2022, compared to just seven countries for the period from 2002 to 2006,” says the report.

Another trend is that wars between states don’t tend to end conclusively any more, leaving the possibility of further escalation.

“The number of conflicts ending in ceasefire has remained steady, which points towards many conflicts being left unresolved,” says the report.

“Coinciding with this is a decrease in the percentage of conflicts that end through a clear victory.”

One fear is that current trends spiral just as they did in the early part of the last century.

“One possible scenario is that increasing conflict triggers broad-scale increases in militarisation, which further increases the risk of conflict,” Mr Killelea said. 

“The sheer number of conflicts globally is making it harder for the international community to properly address so many problems simultaneously.”

The IEP pointed out that In 2019, the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and subnational conflicts in Ethiopia wars were minor conflicts, but have each grown. 

“The impact of an escalation in Gaza or Ukraine could potentially have devastating humanitarian and economic consequences for the world,” said Mr Killelea.

Conflicts are also being shaped by technology, further fuelling the ability of small groups to engage in asymmetric warfare. 

Between 2018 and 2023 the number of states using drones rose from 16 to 40, a 150 per cent increase. 

Over the same period, the number of non-state groups who committed at least one drone attack rose from six to 91, an increase of over 1,400 per cent.

Not surprisingly, deaths from drone strikes have also boomed.

In 2023, there were over 3,000 deaths from drone strikes, an increase of 168 per cent since 2018.

One area of improvement has been in terrorism, says the report.

Terrorism deaths peaked in 2015, hitting around 11,000, but have since fallen to around 8,500.

Although terrorism – like conflict generally – is a rare cause of death globally, many people worry about it, allowing it to loom large in their minds.

In the UK, 47 per cent of people said they worried “very much” or “a great deal” about terrorism, according to Our World in Data. 

Yet in 2021, there was just one terrorism-related death, compared to 134,802 deaths caused by cancer in England alone, Our World in Data reported.

Overall, deaths from terrorism have decreased dramatically in western Europe over the last 50 years and – with the exception of 9/11 – remain exceptionally low in North America.

But the picture in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and the Middle East and North Africa the reverse is true. In all these regions deaths from terrism have climbed markedly in recent decades.

Mr Killelea said the increase in terrorism in the central Sahel region is the greatest concern in sub-Saharan Africa. 

“The risks in this region are exacerbated by the looming threat of ecological crisis, with the impact of climate change possibly leading to an increase in conflict and more people becoming refugees or internally displaced,” he added.

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