With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

DEPT. OF SHIT-STIRRING — “Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win,” by Christopher Cadelago: “The national poll, conducted and commissioned by the firm Bendixen & Amandi after [President JOE] BIDEN's politically disastrous debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, found Biden trailing [DONALD] TRUMP, 42 percent to 43 percent. … Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is now running ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, the survey found.”

They’re with her … “[F]ormer Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON, the 2016 nominee who is not being seriously discussed as a candidate by voters anxious about Biden’s chances, is slightly ahead of Harris. Clinton leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent. … Clinton-Harris is beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent, a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris.”

THE BIDEN SPLIT THAT MATTERS — For those expecting the bottom to fall out on Biden’s Democratic support on Capitol Hill this week, yesterday was a rude awakening. For the first time since his dismal debate performance late last month, Biden showed signs of political life — rallying key bases of support around him as he projected defiance in public and private.

It’s not over yet, though. As our colleagues on the Hill write, “the party dismay over Biden’s electability has not abated,” with “dozens more lawmakers — even some who say they’re with Biden — are harboring serious doubts about their nominee in private.”

So how to make sense of the emerging split between Biden’s public supporters and his private doubters? Democrats are falling into two camps: the “time to move on” crowd, and the “show us more” crowd, and that divide has scrambled some of the usual divides in the party.

Consider two statements from two prominent Democrat women yesterday.

— Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), one of the party’s young icons and a symbol of an ascendant left that has been at odds with the 81-year-old president, offered Biden a full-throated message of support yesterday at the Capitol: “The matter is closed,” she told reporters. “Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race, and I support him.”

— Sen. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.), the Senate’s most senior female leader and a symbol of women’s hard-fought battle for power on Capitol Hill (who also spent 16 years as Biden’s colleague) struck a different note: “We need to see a much more forceful and energetic candidate on the campaign trail in the very near future in order for him to convince voters he is up to the job,” she said in a statement, calling on Biden to “seriously consider the best way to preserve his incredible legacy and secure it for the future.”

To be sure, Murray and other show-us-mores have been vague about what exactly they’d like to see Biden doing more of — often simply calling on the candidate to “reassure” the American people. The better way to view their posture is that it’s less about needing Biden to show more and more about them needing to see more about how the very real voter doubts about his fitness for office evolve.

Expect the divide to play out today in two crucial meetings on Capitol Hill.

House Democrats will head down South Capitol Street in a couple of hours to DCCC headquarters for a members-only, no-cell-phones-allowed discussion of what’s next. Watching it all will be Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, who has expressed firm but not effusive support for Biden and will be “in listen-only mode as has been the case in every discussion over the past 10 days,” according to an aide.

Senate Democrats this afternoon will hold their usual caucus lunch for the first time since the debate. While no Democratic senators have called for Biden to step aside, neither is there any mass movement right now to coalesce around him, as there has been in the House. Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has been especially and uncharacteristically spare with his comments on the situation.

BIDEN’S BASE: The time-to-move-on faction’s strength right now is that it’s firmly rooted in a base of institutional support, particularly inside the House — none more crucial and necessary than the Congressional Black Caucus.

Biden met with the group via Zoom last night in what was described to us as a rah-rah “family meeting.” Biden thanked CBC members for their backing, Nick Wu and Brakkton Booker write: “You’ve had my back, and I’ll continue to have yours,” the president said, before launching into a list of second-term policy priorities — something caucus members had been pushing for.

Part of the CBC’s loyalty to Biden is about just that, loyalty. The group has enjoyed outsize influence in the White House and in the halls of Congress under his watch, with more committee chairmanships than ever and a direct line to White House. But it’s also about pragmatism, with Black people in politics especially skeptical of jettisoning a known quantity for an AARON SORKIN fantasy scenario of substituting Biden out.

“When America gets the cold, we get the flu,” one CBC aide told Playbook last night. “We cannot afford to get the flu again. And so what you're hearing in black politicians is reflective of what they are hearing from their black voters: You do not abandon the ship now.”

Shortly after the CBC call wrapped, Biden won statements of support from key Congressional Hispanic Caucus leaders, Reps. NANETTE BARRAGÁN (D-Calif.), the chair, and Rep.  ADRIANO ESPAILLAT (D-N.Y.), the vice chair. A Biden meeting with that group is also in the works, we’re told.

A CRUCIAL 72 HOURS: For the “show us more” crowd, they’ll have plenty to watch over the next three days — all of it centered on what should be comfortable turf for Biden, the NATO Summit he’s hosting here in Washington.

Later today, he will deliver remarks about the alliance’s 75th anniversary of NATO. Meetings with various allied leaders will follow, and on Thursday he’ll hold what White House press secretary KARINE JEAN PIERRE jokingly called a “big boy press conference” — as in, not the usual two-question affairs Biden usually does with foreign leaders.

If Biden can get through the week, his orbit has good reason to think his hold on the nomination is safe: Congress is out next week for the Republican National Convention, with public attention quickly turning to Trump and his new running mate, whoever that might be.

But there’s also reasons they should be nervous. For starters, concerns about Biden’s slipping numbers aren’t going away, and you can expect a spate of new polls taken after the July 4 holiday to start popping up later this week.

For another, concerns about Biden’s fitness aren’t going anywhere, either. Even if he can string together a run of strong public performances, his behavior in public and private will remain under a microscope. Look no further than the WSJ’s latest deep dive — “How Biden’s Inner Circle Worked to Keep Signs of Aging Under Wraps” — which included tough anecdotes about Biden skipping a planned meeting with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ and fumbling for words at a New York fundraiser last year.

Administration officials pushed back on those stories, of course, but even a typical Biden flub could rekindle all the questions about his abilities to survive the next four months, let alone the next four years.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

ALL THE PRESIDENT’S DOCTORS — With questions continuing to swirl about the particulars of Biden’s health, it has fallen on White House physician KEVIN O’CONNOR to vouch for the president’s fitness for office — which he did against last night, explaining in a two-page letter why a prominent Walter Reed neurologist repeatedly visited the White House over the past year.

But the doctor is under some scrutiny of his own, with Ben Schreckinger reporting this morning on how O’Connor “is a family intimate and one-time business associate of the president’s brother” who has called the Biden clan “a really important part of my life.” The upshot: “[E]xperts in presidential health, and its long history of medical cover ups, said the close personal bonds between the Bidens and O’Connor intensify the inherent conflicts in relying on the White House physician to accurately convey the state of his employer’s health to the public.”

Related read: “Parkinson’s disease expert who visited White House doubles as Biden donor,” by the Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky

MORE BIDEN READS — “How Biden Is Leveraging His Defiance to Try to Stem Democratic Defections,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher … “Joe Biden Hasn’t Lost Dems on Capitol Hill. Keeping Them Won’t Be So Simple,” NOTUS …. “NATO Summit Puts Biden’s Fitness Under a Microscope,” by WSJ’s Lara Seligman and Catherine Lucey … “Biden is seeing a different world than other Democrats,” by WaPo’s Matt Viser

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to take up judicial nominations. Fed Chair JEROME POWELL will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. FTC Chair LINA KHAN will testify before a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee at 10:30 a.m.

3 things to watch …

1. It has been all but forgotten in the national news amid, you know, everything, but Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s corruption trial is on its way toward a close in Manhattan this week. Prosecutors started their closing arguments against the New Jersey Democrat yesterday, calling him a “bribed man” who did the bidding of wealthy patrons in return for cash, gold bars and a Mercedes. The government is expected to wrap its case up today; lawyers for Menendez — who said yesterday that prosecutors were “intoxicated with their own rhetoric” — will follow before the jury has its say. More from Ry Rivard
   
2. Some of us are old enough to remember when Rep. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) was the symbol of an ascendant hard-right after succeeding the retiring JOHN BOEHNER in a 2016 special election. Now he’s the symbol of a faction eating itself alive after being kicked out of the House Freedom Caucus last night for the sin of supporting a primary challenge to the group’s chair, Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.). Davidson, though, gets the last laugh: Good last week officially lost his bid for renomination, pending a recount. More from Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney
   
3. The newest member of the House, Rep. GREG LOPEZ (R-Colo.), is destined for a truly obscure congressional trivia question. He was sworn in yesterday for a term that will last less than six months, warming the seat for Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.), who is likely switching districts pending November’s election. But his vote counts the same as any other member’s, and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON might need it as soon as tomorrow — when a vote on holding AG MERRICK GARLAND in “inherent contempt” is expected to hit the floor.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. At 5 p.m., Biden will deliver remarks on the 75th anniversary of NATO with first lady JILL BIDEN also in attendance. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m.

On the trail

Trump is set to hold a rally in Doral, Florida, this evening.

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

TRUMPED UP — Somewhat lost in the post-debate furor over Biden has been Trump’s surprising decision to let the chaos play out without inserting himself into it. But that time may be up.

Trump gave his first interview since the debate on SEAN HANNITY’s Fox News show last night, telling the host that he expects Biden to stay in the presidential race regardless of the outcry: “He’s got an ego, and he doesn’t want to quit. He doesn’t want to do that,” he said, adding that he believed calls from Democrats to get Biden out would backfire: “No one wants to give it up that way.”

“Trump also argued that it would be impossible for Democrats to stop Biden from running since he has accumulated enough delegates to win the party’s nomination at next month’s Democratic National Convention,” Alex Isenstadt writes. “Unless he says, ‘I’m getting out,’ there’s nothing they can do to get him out,” Trump said, though he added that Biden’s cabinet could remove him from office by using the 25th Amendment.

Meanwhile, MIRIAM ADELSON’s Preserve America super PAC is preparing a $61 million ad blitz attacking Biden, Alex and Meridith McGraw report — effectively ending Biden’s on-air dominance in key swing states. The spots will begin with the outset of the Summer Olympics later this month and run through Labor Day in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump is also set to host a rally in Doral, Florida, today, with another scheduled in Pennsylvania on Saturday. And, of course: Trump could announce his running mate at any point before next week.

Crossing the party line: “Trump’s platform changed the GOP’s position on abortion. Not everyone is happy,” by Megan Messerly and Irie Sentner from Milwaukee

More top reads:

• Heads up in Milwaukee: “Death of Black man pinned to ground by Milwaukee hotel security draws George Floyd comparisons,” by NBC’s Marlene Lenthang and Karen Cortes

MORE POLITICS

CASH DASH — House Republicans’ top super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and its sister group, American Action Network, raised $58 million over the past three months, Ally Mutnick scoops.

The details: “Of that total, $46.4 million comes from CLF — which is the largest second quarter in the group's history. Together CLF and AAN have raised $200 million to date since the start of 2023.” The total also tops their Democratic counterparts last quarter: House Majority PAC and its allied House Majority Forward raised $51 million.

“CLF has close ties to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and is the biggest spender in congressional races for the GOP. And when chaos engulfed the House Republican Conference with KEVIN McCARTHY’s ouster, there were serious questions about the group's ability to keep raising money. But the fundraising totals are the latest sign that the turmoil hasn't spooked donors and choked their coffers too much.”

More top reads:

• In Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, ABE HAMADEH and BLAKE MASTERS are duking it out in a bitter GOP primary that will test “whether conservative voters can look past any drummed-up suspicions about Hamadeh's background to elect one of Arizona's most fervent election deniers,” writes Insider’s Bryan Metzger. It’s also about whether politics is “so thoroughly nationalized that [Masters] can plausibly seek to represent a House district over 100 miles from his home in Tucson.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

INSIDE THE NATO MEETING — While much of the attention at this week’s NATO gathering will be on Biden’s performance, the confab will also be grappling with Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine and the specter of a second Trump presidency, NBC’s Dan De Luce writes.

What to expect: “The Biden administration and other European governments are expected to make announcements at the NATO summit this week about new military hardware for Ukraine, including possibly more Patriot missile defense systems, fighter jets and other weapons.

“As for Ukraine’s future security arrangements, U.S. and European officials say they hope to hammer out a statement at the summit promising an ‘irreversible’ path to NATO membership for Kyiv.”

Matthew Kaminski sets the stage: “Gathering this week in Washington for a big 75th birthday celebration, NATO has never had more clarity and urgency about its mission. There should be no existential doubts: The collective of 32 countries is there to defend the Western flank of democracies against an aggressive Russia, mobilized for a long war, and its most important ally and leader of the new axis of ‘resistance’ in Beijing. Yet Washington pharmacies might want to stock up on Xanax. NATO’s mission may be clear and urgent, but the political realities are harsh.”

The view from the Hill: Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday pledged to press all NATO members to reach their domestic military spending goals during an appearance at the Hudson Institute, Miles Herszenhorn writes. “Every NATO member needs to be spending at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense. That’s the agreement, that’s the deal,” Johnson said.

Clicker: “12 people to keep an eye on at the NATO summit,” by our colleagues Paul Mcleary, Philipp Fritz, Stefan Boscia, Kyle Duggan, Laura Kayali and Thorsten Jungholt

THE VIEW FROM OSLO — “‘The NATO Card’: How One Leader Thinks the Alliance Can Win Over Critics,” by Alex Burns: “NATO is confronting a military threat from Russia and homegrown political attacks from candidates on the far right and far left. Prime Minister JONAS GAHR STØRE of Norway thinks the alliance can weather the moment. Støre, a center-left leader who previously served as foreign minister, said the political eruptions in Europe reflected simmering public discontent with the performance of mainstream political parties. But voters, he said, are still thinking twice before blowing up international relationships that keep them safe.”

CONGRESS

TAKING BACK THE IMMUNITY IDOL — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER yesterday said Democrats are planning to pursue legislation to classify actions taken by Trump surrounding the events of Jan. 6 as “unofficial” and therefore not immune from prosecution, Anthony Adragna writes. “We, Democrats, will not let this stand unaddressed,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “The Constitution makes plain that Congress has the authority to check the judiciary.”

MARK YOUR CALENDAR — NBC’s Rebecca Kaplan reports that “the Weaponization Select Subcommittee has postponed a planned 7/12 hearing with Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG and former DOJ official and current Bragg senior advisor MATTHEW COLANGELO, according to a source familiar. A new hearing date is TBD.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Newly resigned federal judge is accused of harassing a law clerk and ‘unwanted, offensive, and abusive sexual conduct,’” by Alaska Public Media’s Liz Ruskin: JOSHUA KINDRED “voluntarily resigned, which the court announced last week, but that does not end the investigation into his behavior. The federal Judicial Council referred the case to the Judicial Conference to consider recommending his impeachment.”

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Panama is using barbed wire to try to block a major route for U.S.-bound migrants,” by NBC’s Didi Martinez and Julia Ainsley

PLAYBOOKERS

John Garamendi announced he has cancer and will continue to serve as he is treated.

Mary Peltola has an, uh, unique reason for not making it back to D.C. this week.

Kristi Noem has turned into a ghost on social media.

Benjamin Hall is using golf to help in his recovery.

Jay Johnston pleaded guilty over his Jan. 6 involvement.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at “The Future of NATO” event at the Spy Museum yesterday night, which featured panel discussions with Leon Panetta, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.): Christina Ruffinni, Jeremy Bash, Jimmy Panetta, Jane Harman, Jonna Mendez, Chris Costa, Andrew Hammond, William Webster, Olivia Troye, Anita Seigfriedt, John Simon, Cameron Hume, Darlene Superville, Liz Landers, Brett Bruen, Johanna Maska, Christine Baratta, NIeves Perez, Kat Maramba, Madison Lazas, Kasey Henderson, Andrew Roth, Catherine Valentine, Zach Cohen, Matt Berg and Joseph Gedeon.

— SPOTTED last night at Mission in Navy Yard at a birthday party hosted by Brad Dayspring and Marty Reiser for Kelley Hudak that also turned into an impromptu engagement party: Lachlan Markay, Anna Palmer and Patrick Mellody, Lauren French and Jake Wilkins, Andrew Kovalcin, Robert and Katie Zirkelbach, Sarah Gilmore, Kaya Singleton, Caitlin Carroll and Ian Tuttle, Becca Glover, Jackie Kucinich, Carl Hulse, Erin and Jay Billings, Will Boyington, Seth Levey, Hastie Afkhami and MK McCloskey. 

MEDIA MOVES — Rick Klein has been promoted to VP and D.C. bureau chief for ABC News. More from Deadline … WaPo executive editor Matt Murray said in an announcement yesterday that longtime Postie Krissah Thompson will lead the process of building the forthcoming “third newsroom.” Read the announcement … Andy Duehren has joined the NYT to cover tax policy. He previously covered Treasury and economic policy at the WSJ.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Leslie Martes is joining Forward Majority as chief strategy officer. She previously was VP of political and strategic initiatives at the DLCC.

TRANSITIONS — Peter Chandler has joined the trade association Internet Works as its first executive director. He previously was SVP of federal policy and government relations at TechNet. … Pamela Thomas is now EVP of portfolio and asset management at AvalonBay Communities. She previously was managing director and head of U.S. real estate investment at CPP Investments. … Taj Magruder and Hana Hancock are joining New Heights Communications. Magruder will be a director and is a Pennsylvania Department of Education and Philadelphia Department of Commerce alum. Hancock will be a senior associate and previously was comms manager for The Trust for the National Mall.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Will Layden, VP of government affairs at the American Wood Council, and Crosby Armstrong, director of comms and public affairs at the Entertainment Software Association, got married this weekend at Amaterra Winery in Portland, Oregon, surrounded by friends and family. The two met through mutual friends Emily Lucente and James Manning. Pic … Another pic 

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … White House’s Jeff Wexler and Patrick Stevenson … DOT’s Mohsin Syed … David Wertime … AP’s Tom Beaumont … Drew Hammill … Lauren Flynn of the House Appropriations GOP … Alexa Vance of Rep. Guy Reschenthaler’s (R-Pa.) office … State’s Jaclyn Gelfond … API’s Mollie Timmons ... POLITICO’s Tracey Loos, Manuel Quinones and Patrick Keenaghan … ABC’s Luke Barr … Patrick Steel … ACLU’s Anthony Romero … NBC’s Amanda Terkel … Sara Durr of the U.S. Conference of Mayors … Randi Reid of Kountoupes Denham Carr & Reid … Brian Blase of Paragon Health Institute … Danny Diaz of FP1 Strategies … Megan Ortiz of the Cohen Group … former Reps. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) and Dave Camp (R-Mich.) ... WaPo’s Amy Fiscus … Caroline Scullin … Jeff Simon … Maria Lohmeyer … Emma Doyle … Floyd Abrams … Donna Imperato … Applied Intuition’s Jaspreet Gill … Mineko Tokito Abe … Amanda Gonzalez Thompson

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misstated how long Patty Murray and Joe Biden were colleagues in the Senate.