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. 2024 May 30;14(6):e11409.
doi: 10.1002/ece3.11409. eCollection 2024 Jun.

Potential planting regions of Pterocarpus santalinus (Fabaceae) under current and future climate in China based on MaxEnt modeling

Xiao-Feng Zhang  1 , Mir Muhammad Nizamani  2 , Chao Jiang  3 , Fa-Zhi Fang  1 , Kun-Kun Zhao  4
Affiliations

Potential planting regions of Pterocarpus santalinus (Fabaceae) under current and future climate in China based on MaxEnt modeling

Xiao-Feng Zhang et al. Ecol Evol. .

Abstract

This study modeled the habitat distribution of Pterocarpus santalinus, a valuable rosewood species, across China under current and future climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, and SSPs585) using MaxEnt. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat, spanning approximately 409,600 km2, is primarily located in the central and southern parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Yunnan, as well as in the Hainan provinces, along with the coastal regions of Taiwan, and the Sichuan-Chongqing border. The habitat's distribution is significantly influenced by climatic factors such as temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual precipitation (bio12), while terrain and soil factors play a lesser role. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for P. santalinus is projected to expand, with a northeastward shift in its distribution center. This research not only sheds light on the geoecological characteristics and geographical distribution of P. santalinus in China but also offers a scientific basis for planning its cultivation areas and enhancing cultivation efficiency under changing climate conditions.

Keywords: China; MaxEnt; Pterocarpus santalinus; climate change; planting suitability regionalization.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Spatial distribution of occurrence records of Pterocarpus santalinus in China.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of Pterocarpus santalinus under the current climate.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Suitable habitat for Pterocarpus santalinus in China under the current climate.
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Jackknife test of variable importance for Pterocarpus santalinus in the MaxEnt modeling.
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Response curves for the key environmental variables in the MaxEnt model for Pterocarpus santalinus.
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Suitable planting areas for Pterocarpus santalinus under current and future climatic conditions.
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 7
Changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for Pterocarpus santalinus under future climate conditions. (a) SSPs126 (2050s, 2070s,2090s), (b) SSPs245 (2050s, 2070s, 2090s), (c) SSPs585 (2050s, 2070s, 2090s).
FIGURE 8
FIGURE 8
Trajectory changes of the centroid in the future for Pterocarpus santalinus.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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