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. 2021 Nov;15(6):732-741.
doi: 10.1111/irv.12885. Epub 2021 Jul 13.

Defining the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus around the world: National and subnational surveillance data from 12 countries

Lisa Staadegaard  1 , Saverio Caini  1 , Sonam Wangchuk  2 , Binay Thapa  2 , Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira de Almeida  3 , Felipe Cotrim de Carvalho  3 , Rodrigo A Fasce  4 , Patricia Bustos  5 , Jan Kyncl  6   7 , Ludmila Novakova  8 , Alfredo Bruno Caicedo  9   10 , Domenica Joseth de Mora Coloma  10 , Adam Meijer  11 , Mariëtte Hooiveld  1 , Q Sue Huang  12 , Tim Wood  12 , Raquel Guiomar  13 , Ana Paula Rodrigues  13 , Vernon Jian Ming Lee  14   15 , Li Wei Ang  14   16 , Cheryl Cohen  17   18 , Jocelyn Moyes  17   18 , Amparo Larrauri  19 , Concepción Delgado-Sanz  19 , Clarisse Demont  20 , Mathieu Bangert  20 , Michel Dückers  1 , Jojanneke van Summeren  1 , John Paget  1
Affiliations

Defining the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus around the world: National and subnational surveillance data from 12 countries

Lisa Staadegaard et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2021 Nov.

Abstract

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are one of the leading causes of lower respiratory tract infections and have a major burden on society. For prevention and control to be deployed effectively, an improved understanding of the seasonality of RSV is necessary.

Objectives: The main objective of this study was to contribute to a better understanding of RSV seasonality by examining the GERi multi-country surveillance dataset.

Methods: RSV seasons were included in the analysis if they contained ≥100 cases. Seasonality was determined using the "average annual percentage" method. Analyses were performed at a subnational level for the United States and Brazil.

Results: We included 601 425 RSV cases from 12 countries. Most temperate countries experienced RSV epidemics in the winter, with a median duration of 10-21 weeks. Not all epidemics fit this pattern in a consistent manner, with some occurring later or in an irregular manner. More variation in timing was observed in (sub)tropical countries, and we found substantial differences in seasonality at a subnational level. No association was found between the timing of the epidemic and the dominant RSV subtype.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that geographical location or climatic characteristics cannot be used as a definitive predictor for the timing of RSV epidemics and highlight the need for (sub)national data collection and analysis.

Keywords: epidemiology; respiratory syncytial virus; seasonality; surveillance.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
(A–C) RSV seasonality per country (or subnational level) and season in countries experiencing a temperate climate. Dot indicates peak of the epidemic
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
(A–D) RSV in the United States per region: Median seasonality and average curve. Pink area under curve is median start–end epidemic; curve symbolized the average number of RSV cases each week
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
(A, B) RSV seasonality per country (or subnational level) and season in countries experiencing a (sub)tropical climate. Dot indicates peak of the epidemic
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
(A–D) RSV in Brazil per region: Median seasonality and average curve. Shaded pink area indicated the median start and end of the epidemic; curve symbolized the average number of RSV cases each week
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
(A–D) Dominant RSV subtype (60% threshold) per season and country. Dot indicates the peak of the epidemic
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
(A–D) Dominant RSV subtype (70% threshold) per season and country. Dot indicates the peak of the epidemic
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