Effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and tobacco-attributable deaths in Mexico: the SimSmoke model
- PMID: 26758223
Effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and tobacco-attributable deaths in Mexico: the SimSmoke model
Abstract
Objective: To examine how policies adopted in Mexico in response to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control affected smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
Methods: The SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy is applied to Mexico. This discrete time, first-order Markov model uses data on population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy for Mexico. It assesses, individually and jointly, the effects of seven types of policies: cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth tobacco access policies.
Results: The Mexico SimSmoke model estimates that smoking rates have been reduced by about 30% as a result of policies implemented since 2002, and that the number of smoking-attributable deaths will have been reduced by about 826 000 by 2053. Increases in cigarette prices are responsible for over 60% of the reductions, but health warnings, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and cessation treatments also play important roles.
Conclusions: Mexico has shown steady progress towards reducing smoking prevalence in a short period of time, as have other Latin American countries, such as Brazil, Panama and Uruguay. Tobacco control policies play an important role in continued efforts to reduce tobacco use and associated deaths in Mexico.
Similar articles
-
Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.Glob Public Health. 2017 Jul;12(7):830-845. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2015.1123749. Epub 2016 Feb 2. Glob Public Health. 2017. PMID: 26837721 Free PMC article.
-
Russia SimSmoke: the long-term effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Russia.Tob Control. 2014 Nov;23(6):484-90. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051011. Epub 2013 Jul 12. Tob Control. 2014. PMID: 23853252 Free PMC article.
-
The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.Am J Prev Med. 2012 Nov;43(5 Suppl 3):S179-86. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2012.07.037. Am J Prev Med. 2012. PMID: 23079215 Free PMC article.
-
The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard.J Public Health Manag Pract. 2018 Sep/Oct;24(5):448-457. doi: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000000780. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2018. PMID: 29346189 Free PMC article. Review.
-
Progress and challenges in tobacco control policies in Mexico, 2003-2017: an approach using the Tobacco Control Scale.J Public Health Policy. 2022 Sep;43(3):431-444. doi: 10.1057/s41271-022-00359-5. Epub 2022 Aug 29. J Public Health Policy. 2022. PMID: 36038768 Review.
Cited by
-
Differences in the Cognitive Function of Mexican Adults Aged 60 and Older with Self-Reported Diabetes in 2001 and 2018.J Alzheimers Dis. 2023;95(3):1029-1039. doi: 10.3233/JAD-230286. J Alzheimers Dis. 2023. PMID: 37638436 Free PMC article.
-
Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tob Control. 2023 Sep;32(5):589-598. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056825. Epub 2022 Jan 11. Tob Control. 2023. PMID: 35017262 Free PMC article.
-
The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.PLoS One. 2021 Jun 21;16(6):e0248215. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248215. eCollection 2021. PLoS One. 2021. PMID: 34153063 Free PMC article.
-
Effect of Human Development Index and other socioeconomic factors on mortality-to-incidence ratio of lips and oral cavity cancer in Mexican states: an ecological study.BMJ Open. 2021 Jun 18;11(6):e042376. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042376. BMJ Open. 2021. PMID: 34145006 Free PMC article.
-
US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths.Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 May 3;18(9):4876. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18094876. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021. PMID: 34063672 Free PMC article.