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. 2007 Apr;13(4):581-9.
doi: 10.3201/eid1304.060828.

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic

Michael J Haber  1 , David K Shay, Xiaohong M Davis, Rajan Patel, Xiaoping Jin, Eric Weintraub, Evan Orenstein, William W Thompson
Affiliations

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic

Michael J Haber et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Apr.

Abstract

Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by approximately 50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by approximately 60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease the pandemic's health effects.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimated effectiveness of closing schools on illness (A), hospitalization (B), and death (C) rates during a simulated pandemic.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated effectiveness of confinement to home 2 days after onset of respiratory symptoms on illness (A), hospitalization (B), and death (C) rates during a simulated pandemic.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Dynamics of the influenza pandemic. Case 1: no interventions. Case 2: schools are closed for 14 days when prevalence reaches 10%. Case 3: ill persons and all their household contacts are confined to their homes after the second day of illness of the index case-patient, and the compliance rate is 40%. A) illness; B) hospitalizations; C) deaths.
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