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Observational Study
. 2020 Jan 1;156(1):57-64.
doi: 10.1001/jamadermatol.2019.3353.

Age-Specific Incidence of Melanoma in the United States

Affiliations
Observational Study

Age-Specific Incidence of Melanoma in the United States

Kelly G Paulson et al. JAMA Dermatol. .

Abstract

Importance: Melanoma is epidemiologically linked to UV exposure, particularly childhood sunburn. Public health campaigns are increasing sun-protective behavior in the United States, but the effect on melanoma incidence is unknown.

Objective: To examine the incidence of melanoma in the United States and whether any age-specific differences are present.

Design, setting, and participants: Observational, population-based registry data were extracted on July 3, 2018, from the combined National Program of Cancer Registries-Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results United States Cancer Statistics database for 2001-2015. Deidentified data for 988 103 cases of invasive melanoma, with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology histologic categorization codes 8720 to 8790, were used for analysis. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2018, to March 1, 2019.

Main outcomes and measures: The annual rates of melanoma in pediatric, adolescent, young adult, and adult age groups were determined. Analyses were stratified by sex, and incidence rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rate was calculated over the most recent decade for which data were available (2006-2015) using the weighted least squares method.

Results: In 2015, 83 362 cases of invasive melanoma were reported in the United States, including 67 in children younger than 10 years, 251 in adolescents (10-19 years), and 1973 in young adults (20-29 years). Between 2006 and 2015, the overall incidence rate increased from 200.1 to 229.1 cases per million person-years. In adults aged 40 years or older, melanoma rates increased by an APC of 1.8% in both men (95% CI, 1.4%-2.1%) and women (95% CI, 1.4%-2.2%). In contrast, clinically and statistically significant decreases were seen in melanoma incidence for adolescents and young adults. Specifically, incidence rates decreased by an APC of -4.4% for male adolescents (95% CI, -1.7% to -7.0%), -5.4% for female adolescents (95% CI, -3.3% to -7.4%), -3.7% for male young adults (95% CI, -2.5% to -4.8%), and -3.6% for female young adults (95% CI, -2.8% to -4.5%). Data on skin pigmentation and sun protection history were unavailable; similar trends were observed with data limited to non-Hispanic whites. Young adult women appeared to have twice the risk of melanoma as young adult men.

Conclusions and relevance: The incidence of invasive melanoma in the United States appeared to decrease in adolescents and young adults from 2006 to 2015, and this finding contrasted with increases in older populations. These incidence trends suggest that public health efforts may be favorably influencing melanoma incidence in the United States.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Paulson reported receiving grants from Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer–Merck during the conduct of the study and grants from bluebird biosciences and grants from EMD Serono outside the submitted work; in addition, Dr Paulson had a patent for Merkel cell carcinoma T cell receptor issued and licensed. Dr Bhatia reported receiving grants from EMD-Serono, BMS, Merck, Oncosec, Immune Design, Novartis, and NantKwest and personal fees from EMD-Serono, BMS, and Sanofi-Genzyme outside the submitted work. Dr Wojcik reported receiving grants from the University of Washington Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Changes in Melanoma Annual Incident Cases in the United States
Reported incident cases of invasive melanoma in the United States in persons aged 0 to 39 years (A) and those 40 years or older (B).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Melanoma Incidence Rate in the United States, 2001-2015
Total number of melanoma incident cases are shown, with age at diagnosis indicated above graphs. For adolescents (age, 10-19 years) and young adults (age, 20-29 years) melanoma incidence peaked at approximately 2005 and then began to decrease. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Melanoma incidence peaked at approximately 2005 and then began to decrease.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. Annual Percentage Change in Melanoma Incidence Rate in the United States, 2006-2015
Annual percentage change in melanoma incidence rate in the United States between 2006 and 2015 (most recent decade with data available), with data shown by decade of life. Insufficient data were available for ages 0-9 years to determine annual percentage change (<100 cases per year in the US in this age group).
Figure 4.
Figure 4.. Melanoma Incidence Rate Ratio by Sex and Age, 2015
Ratio of incidence rates in men and women are shown by age. In 2015, melanoma was more common in women than men before the age of 50 years. Error bars indicate 95% CIs.

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