Should Detroit Tigers' Javier Báez swing more often? Here's what the data suggests

Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Báez is searching for answers at the plate.

Báez, a two-time All-Star who received MVP votes in his prime, has performed better with runners in scoring position — compared to without runners in scoring position — in each of the past two seasons, the worst seasons of his 11-year MLB career. He is hitting .333 with runners in scoring position and .178 without runners in scoring position in the two-year stretch.

Interestingly enough, Báez swings more often with runners in scoring position.

"Without runners in scoring position, or on base, I feel like that first pitch, I don't want to swing at it," Báez said June 9, before landing on the injured list with lumbar spine inflammation. "I want to feel how they're going to attack me on the first pitch. Sometimes, I want to be ready for it. When I feel good, I'm ready for that fastball first pitch. Every pitcher pitches different to me, so it's hard, but at the same time, I got to make adjustments."

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Combining the 2023-24 seasons, Báez is hitting .333 with an .858 OPS and a 58.8% swing rate with runners in scoring position, while hitting .178 with a .472 OPS and a 53.3% swing rate without runners in scoring position.

Báez, who returned Monday from the injured list, didn't realize he has been swinging more often with runners in scoring position.

"I don't know how to follow stuff like that," Báez said. "But that's good to know. That's something that I might get into a little later in the future to know about numbers and stuff. But I just want to be good in general."

In 2023, Báez hit .312 with an .829 OPS with runners in scoring position compared to .197 with a .528 OPS without runners in scoring position. In 2024, he is hitting .390 with a .939 OPS with runners in scoring position compared to .124 with a .318 OPS without runners in scoring position.

In 2023, Báez swung at 59.2% of pitches with runners in scoring position and 53.6% of pitches without runners in scoring position. In 2024, he is swinging at 57.5% of pitches with runners in scoring position and 52.3% of pitches without runners in scoring position.

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There is a career-long trend for Báez that connects success with swinging more often. When he swings more, he seems to be more productive at the plate. His swing rate has plummeted to career lows as a member of the Tigers, dropping from 55.8% in 2022 to 54.8% in 2023 to 53.4% in 2024.

He had a 57.9% swing rate in his best season with the Chicago Cubs in 2018, when he finished second in National League MVP voting. He also had a 56.9% swing rate in his 31-home run season with the Cubs and New York Mets in 2021.

"I tried not to think too much in the box," Báez said, when asked about his approach with the Cubs. "But now, I got so much stuff in my head, but when you're doing good, you don't think. That's what I'm trying to get."

In December 2021, Báez joined the Tigers by signing a six-year, $140 million contract, which pays him $73 million from 2025-27. He is making $25 million in 2024.

Báez also discussed his struggles in trying to lock in the timing of his swing. He has chased more pitches out of the strike zone with the Tigers — at 46% in 2024 — than he did with the Cubs, when he hovered around 43%.

"I feel that the pitchers open their zone with me a little more," Báez said. "I know I'm not hitting balls out of the zone, but I got to do my timing and my approach and everything right to get to those balls, and sometimes, I prepare to hit those balls out of the zone before I get my approach, so that's why I chase fastballs in, but that's also where I want to the slider to start, so that's something that gets me in between. If I look fastball in, and they throw me a slider away, I don't have the timing, so that's why I'm too late when it's way outside."

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Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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