Hurricanes

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 30W, from 06N to 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles is currently along 68W, from 18N near the Mona Passage southward, moving quickly west at 25 to 30 kt. No significant convection is noted over water.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Senegal with 1009 mb low pressure near 15.5N16.5W to 08N48W. The ITCZ continues from 08N48W to 09N60W near the coastal border of Venezuela and Guyana. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm southwest-south of the monsoon trough.

Gulf Of Mexico

A weak surface trough is in the central Gulf with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity. A surface trough located inland along the Texas Hill County and near the coast of Mexico continues to fuel scattered moderate convection near the eastern Texas and western Louisiana. The diurnal trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE wins dominate the basin along with seas in the 2-4 ft range, locally 5 ft near the Straits of Florida and west-southwest of the lower Florida Keys.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf N of about 26N and W of 94W associated with troughing and low pressure, both at the surface and aloft, are expected through continue through at least Sat.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave rapidly moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is west of a line from Cozumel, Mexico to 15N80W to near the border of Panama and Colombia. This area of convection may be enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough and 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian Low. Diurnally driven convection is noted over portions of the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends from the Bermuda High across the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades and seas in the 7-10 ft range are in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable south of 11N outside of any convection. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft range in the SW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft range in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, mostly fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge.

Looking ahead, a surface low in the SW Caribbean will meander through the weekend, drifting to near the coast of Nicaragua late Sat into Sun. The low will pull moisture from the monsoon trough, and will enhance convergence over portions of western Panama and Costa Rica Fri onward. Additional atmospheric ingredients will lead to the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain Fri into Sun from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua into northern Honduras. This rain could be significant, causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your local and national meteorological agency for details.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weak surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 29N between 64W and 75W. Otherwise, the Bermuda High continues to dominate much of the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds nearly everywhere north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Locally fresh to strong winds are between the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, reaching locally 8 ft near Barbados and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds south of about 27N through the period. Mostly fresh east winds will pulse over the waters between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos during the late afternoons and at night into next week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky