July 26, 2024

Games of the Day

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First place teams fight in Philadelphia as the Guardians visit the Phillies. Ben Lively takes on Cristoper Sanchez. Even though be gives up more balls in the air than on the ground lively induced eight GDPs in 41 opportunities. Sanchez’s much lower home run rate than last season led to him allowed a .345 slugging percentage. Batters who reach base don’t advance easily to do that.

First place teams hassle in Houston as the Dodgers send Gavin Stone against Framber Valdez. Stone is another young pitcher preventing power, with just 27 of the 97 hits against him going for extra bases. Valdez pitched better over the last month. In six starts, he owns a 2.97 ERA and struck out 37 in 36 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2024

North by Northwest

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Randy Arozarena finds himself at the opposite end of the country from Tampa Bay and the Mariners acquire the outfielder from the Rays:

The Seattle Mariners, starving for offense and in desperate need of a spark, have acquired All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays, the teams announced Thursday night.

Two lower-level minor leaguers, outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins, will go to the Rays in the trade, as will a player to be named later.

ESPN.com

Overall Arozarena is in a down year, but picked things up over the last month or so. Injuries to two Mariners stars necessitated an early trade deal.

The two prospect going to the Rays look pretty good so far. Smith is just 19 years old and is hitting .284/.402/.470 at A ball. Hopkins is a high K, low home run pitcher, but he does need to find his control. He is 22, so would likely be the first person from this trade to the majors.

July 26, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Witt is 16 for 23 since returning from the All-Star Break.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.344, 0.748 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.304, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.306, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.306, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.312, 0.723 — Steven Kwan batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.277, 0.719 — Jose Iglesias batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.300, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.308, 0.702 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.272, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.286, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.316, 0.697 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kyle Freeland.

Witt is the unanimous pick, with Kwan the consensus double down, although the four behind Witt on the NN list are all good choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 26, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted the second highest game score of the day, a 69,and he moves back to the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Ohtani went two for four with a double and a home run, and now leads the majors in extra-base hits with 62.

Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and the Yankees as well as Bobby Witt Jr.and the Royals did not play Thursday, and the remain one-two-three respectively in the rankings.

Francisco Lindor sits in fourth place. He went one for four with a home run in a 3-2 win over the Braves. He hit five home runs in his last four games.

The best game score of the day belonged to Brandon Lowe of the Rays, a 90. It was the 13th game score of at least 90 this season. Lowe went four for four with two walks, two doubles, and a home run in 13-0 win over the Blue Jays. Lowe only played 55 games this season, but owns a .251/.346/514 slash line.

July 26, 2024

July 25, 2024

Passing Judgement

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Shohei Ohtani knocked out a double and a home run Thursday afternoon to help beat the Giants 6-4. That breaks the tie with Aaron Judge of the Yankees, giving Ohtani 62 EXBH to Judge’s 60. It looked like Judge was on his way to an historic EXBH season earlier in the year, but he slowed lately, and now it will be a race for both sluggers to see if either can reach 100 extras for the season.

Clayton Kershaw pitched four innings in his return, giving up six hit while walking two and striking out six. The Giants managed to score two runs against him.

July 25, 2024

Cease Hitting!

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Dylan Cease of the Padres put an end to hitting in Washington as he twirled the second no-hitter in Padres history and the first of his career.

Cease dazzled for nine innings, turning in the second no-hitter in franchise history in a 3-0 victory over the Nationals. The right-hander, forced to wait through a 76-minute delay before he took the mound, struck out nine and walked three.

MLB.com

Cease came into the game having allowed one hit in each of his last two starts, over a total of 13 innings. He walked four and struck out 21. He’s looking good for July pitcher of the month.

July is actually the worst month of the season for complete game no-hitters with just 0.040% of games resulting in that outcome. August is second at 0.046%.

July 25, 2024

Games of the Day

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Logan Webb faces Clayton Kershaw in Kershaw’s 2024 debut as the Giants battle the Dodgers. Webb allowed just seven home runs this season, 0.48 per 9 IP. His career average is 0.65 HR per nine, and his 2024 mark would be his best single season mark. Kershaw makes his 60th appearance against the Giants in the regular season. He stands 26-16 with a 2.01 ERA against the ancient rival, with 402 K and just 67 walks in 393 1/3 innings.

The Braves send Chris Sale against the Mets and Luis Serverino. Sale occupies third in all the pitching average categories in the NL. A good performance today will put him ahead of Zack Wheeler in Tom Tango CY points. He was supposed to pitch two days ago, but weather delayed this start. Severino’s K rate dropped for the third year in a row, just 6.85 per 9 IP this season. He still prevents hits, however, with just 96 allowed in 115 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like another good day for the Padres as they get to face Corbin. Arraez is just two for nine against him, including two Ks. Bogaerts is 3 for 5, Profar 3 for 10.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.364, 0.778 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.343, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.356, 0.736 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.263, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.319, 0.714 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.318, 0.709 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.293, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.304, 0.700 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.324, 0.699 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.288, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kenny Rosenberg.

There is decent agreement between the two systems today, with Arraez by far the best pick. Kwan and Rengifo tie for the consensus double down choice. Rengifo is one for eight since his return from the IL.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 25, 2024

Best Batter Today

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The games of Wednesday brought a shakeup to the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees swap the 1-2 slots in a 12-3 Mets win. Soto posted a two for three with a walk, and double, and a home run, while Judge went 0 for 3 and was lifted early. That gives Soto a three point lead. In the same game, Francisco Lindor of the Mets moves into fourth place as he goes three for six with two home runs, driving in five runs from the leadoff slot for a game score of 78, the second highest on the day. Lindor owns a .304/.392/.601 slash line since June 4th, helping him rise in the rankings. Twenty six of his fifty one hits in that time went for extra bases.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals posted a three for four in an 8-6 Diamondbacks win. He now trails Steven Kwan of the Guardians by one point in the AL batting race, .345 to .344.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays takes fifth place after a tow for three with a walk and home run in a 6-3 win over the Rays. He homered in five of his last six games.

Jacob Stallings of the Rockies produced the highest game score of the day, an 81. The catcher, batting eighth, went three for four with two doubles and a home run in the 20-7 drubbing of the Red Sox. Stalling is having a good year at the plate in limited duty, with a .272/.266/.456 slash line. Those are all well above his career averages. While Coors helps, he’s batting much better on the road as well.

July 25, 2024

July 24, 2024

Cora Extended

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The Red Sox and manager Alex Cora agreed on a three-year contract extension. Part of Cora wanting the deal had to do with his family:

Cora said his wife, Nilda, and their children are happy living in Boston.

“I promise you, this decision was more based on the comfort of my family than my professional career,” he said.

Boston.com

That’s great. One thing free agency gave players was the ability to play where they wanted to play, even if that wasn’t going to be for the highest salary. Good to see managers making the same decisions.

July 24, 2024

Best Batter Today

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For completeness, I’m posting late. I wanted to give Lawrence Butler of the Athletics his due, as Oakland experience few bright spots this season. Butler went three for four from the lead-off slot adding a walk, and missing the cycle by a single. That’s two days in a row of a player missing a cycle by a single. Butler, at seasonal age 24, showed great improvement over his rookie year, and the 81 game score helped. The A’s beat the Astros 8-2. In the same game, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went two three for fourth place in the rankings.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remained on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Ranking. The Mets pitched around Judge, as he walked for times in five plate appearances, while Soto walked one. The Mets took the game 3-2. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals doubled in a 6-2 Arizona win, and he sits in third place. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted a single and a double in the 5-2 win over the Giants, and Ohtani sits in fifth place. Slots 5 through 14 are separated by just 10 points.

July 24, 2024

July 23, 2024

July 23, 2024

A Frame Too Far

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Paul Skenes of the Pirates pitched eight efficient inning against the Cardinals, allowing one run on a Nolan Arenado homer. If the middle of the eighth, however, he trailed 1-0, as the Pirates squandered a few scoring opportunities. After Pittsburgh tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, Skenes came out for the ninth. He allowed a double and a single, however, and comes out of the game trailing 2-1 with a man on first.

We’ll see if the bullpen can strand that runner and if the Pirates can find a way to score in the bottom of the ninth. Skenes finishes with 8 1/3 innings, four hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts.

Update: The Pirates fail to score in the bottom of the ninth, and Skenes takes the first loss of his career, 2-1.

July 23, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Pirates can pull even with the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race with a win in Pittsburgh. Lance Lynn faces Paul Skenes. Lynn, at season age 37, is showing his years. He owns a 4.39 ERA and allowed fourteen homers in 96 1/3 innings. The rookie Skenes stands 6-0 in eleven starts, the team 8-3 overall. For a high K pitcher, Skenes does a good job of inducing double plays. The Pirates turned seven GDPs in 29 opportunities behind him.

The Phillies take on the Twins with Zack Wheeler and Simeon Woods Richardson on the mound. Wheeler is a close second to Chris Sale (also pitching today) in Tom Tango Cy Young points. We’ll see how they stand tomorrow. Woods Richardson, in his first full season in the rotation, is doing fine. He limited walks and hits while allowing a reasonable number of home runs.

Enjoy!

July 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like the Red Sox hitters are good picks in Colorato. Blach owns a low K rate, a very low walk rate, and a .340 BABIP. Witt is 12 for 15 with five extra base hits in three games since returning from the All-Star Break.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • ‘0.317, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting against DJ Herz.
  • 0.351, 0.747 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.348, 0.736 — Jarren Duran batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.322, 0.733 — Steven Kwan batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.334, 0.732 — Harold Ramirez batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.346, 0.725 — Connor Wong batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.331, 0.721 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.332, 0.717 — Rafael Devers batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.328, 0.715 — Luis Garcia batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.334, 0.712 — Rob Refsnyder batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.282, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.

Arraez tops the list here, although he was just off the Log5 list. Witt and Duran, however, are easily the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 23, 2024

Best Batter Today

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It was a big day for two of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals misses the cycle by a single after collecting a triple, double, and home run in his first three plate appearances in a 10-4 win over the Diamondbacks. He added a hit by pitch, He flew out in the eighth inning. That gave him a game score of 82, the highest on the day, and moves him into third place.

Earlier in the day, Juan Soto of the Yankees posted a game score of 80, second base on the day. He went three for five with a double and two home runs. He remains in second place behind his teammate Aaron Judge, who went two for five in the 9-1 win over the Rays. Soto, however, now trails Judge by just 1/2 point.

Yordan Alvarez doubled and walked in a 4-0 Athletics win to sit in fourth place, while Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drew a walk in four trips to the plate in a 3-2 win over Giants, rounding out the top five.

July 22, 2024

Witt Wallops

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Bobby Witt Jr. just homer for the Royals in the bottom of the fourth inning, the three-run shot giving the Royals an 8-3 over the Diamondbacks. He already collected a double and a triple. That gives him at least four innings to collect a single for MLB cycles on consecutive days.

Update: George Brett was the last Royals batter to hit for the cycle on July 25, 1990 in Toronto. That is the longest current cycle drought for any team.

Update: Witt comes up in the sixth inning with one out and gets hit on the left forearm. The fans are livid.

Update: Witt scores on a single and a sacrifice fly to extend the Royals lead to 10-3.

July 22, 2024

First Nacho

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Ignacio Alvarez, who goes by Nacho Alvarez, made his major league for the Braves tonight. I believe he is the first Nacho to play in the majors. The seasonal age 21 rookie owned a .404 OBP in his minor league career, including a .432 mark at AAA in 132 PA.

In his first PA, he did get the bat on Hunter Greene‘s cheese, but Greene made a nice behind the back catch of the grounder for the out. The Reds lead the Braves 1-0 in the second inning.

July 22, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Reds open a series in Atlanta as they compete in a tight NL Wild Card race. Hunter Greene faces Reynaldo Lopez. Greene, in his third year, managed to cut down on home runs allowed to bring his ERA to a very respectable 3.34. Lopez, with a 1.88 ERA, is about six innings short of qualifying for the NL lead. It make take two or three good starts for him to stick at the top of the leaderboard.

The Brewers visit the Cubs, and Chicago could use a sweep to gain in the wild card race, as catching the Brewers for the division looks very difficult. Tobias Myers takes on Javier Assad. Myers owns a 3.13 ERA in his rookie season. He does give up power, but that is balance by keeping batters off base with a .289 opposition OBP. Assad’s ERA is probably helped by the bullpen only allowing two his 15 bequeathed runners to score.

Enjoy!

July 22, 2024

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compare the offensive numbers of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through sixteen weeks, MLB games produced 8.77 runs versus 9.17 runs in 2023. Home runs are down about 0.15 per game. In four of the last five weeks they rate came in above 2.5 per game, so long balls are trending up. Strikeouts remain down by about 0.5 per game, and walks are down about 0.3 per game. I watch and listen to lots of different broadcasts, and announcers seem to believe batters are being more aggressive early in the counts this year. The extra balls in play are not turning into more hits, however, as BABIP hits are down from 14.4 per game to 14.1per game.

The three day post All Star week produced 8.43 runs per game. While homers were up, other hits were down to 13.1 per game. You can follow weekly scoring here.

July 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Iglesias put the ball in play throughout his career with low walk and strikeout numbers. He combined that this season with a .405 BABIP, but in only 96 PA. Chirinos allowed a .363 BABIP this season in 25 innings. Note that the calculation will regress hit averages for both to the season mean, currently .218, but there is enough plate appearances both ways to get a high number. After regression, Chirinos’s 2024 hit average is .261, Iglesias is .289, so Log5 sees this matchup as very favorable to the hitter. The three year parameters are .255/.303, so anyway you look at it , Iglesias should mash against Chirinos. They have never faced each other.

Note that the Rays and Yankees play a 1 PM start, so if you want to double down on the dynamic duo, get your picks in early.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.344, 0.764 — Jose Iglesias batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.286, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.282, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yilber Diaz.
  • 0.304, 0.710 — Jarren Duran batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Hogan Harris.
  • 0.284, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.301, 0.698 — Connor Wong batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.284, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
  • 0.274, 0.691 — Yainer Diaz batting against Hogan Harris.

Iglesias does very well in this analysis also, and it the unanimous top pick. Duran comes out as the consensus double down choice. The two are working on short hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 22, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Games of Sunday elevated two players into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros hit for the cycle in a 6-4 Mariners win. His four for four gave him a game score of 85, the highest on the day. He moves up to fourth place. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals moves into fifth place as he went three for four in a 4-1 win over the White Sox.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 respectively. Judge went two for four with a walk and his 35th home, Soto three four five with a double, but the Rays took the game 6-4.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks third after drawing a walk and hitting a long home run in the 9-6 win over the Red Sox. Los Angeles sweeps the series.

July 22, 2024

July 21, 2024

Alvarez Cycle

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Yordan Alvarez hit a triple that injured Julio Rodriguez, which set him for the a double in the eighth inning that gave him a cycle:

Alvarez finished 4 for 4 with two RBI and two runs scored in the Astros’ 6-4 loss to Seattle.

The 27-year-old Alvarez had the second cycle in the history of T-Mobile Park, after Miguel Tejada’s on Sept. 29, 2001.

ESPN.com

That’s just the second cycle this season. In recent years cycles ran high. From 2017 through 2023, there were at least four cycles in each full season (there were none in 2020). Batters have a ways to go to catch up for 2024.

July 21, 2024

Julio Down by the Outfield Wall

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Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners just crashed into the wall in centerfield in Seattle trying to make a catch off the bat of Yordan Alvarez, who winds up with a triple in the top of the sixth inning. Both feet got caught in the padding cover, but his right foot seems to have taken the brunt of the damage. He was down for a while in pain, but is walking around now. He’s coming off the field with his arm on the shoulder of the trainer.

The Mariners lead the Astros 3-2 as Seattle tries to regain a games back tie for the AL West..

July 21, 2024

Historical Hall Futures

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Tom Tango thought it would be a good exercise to run the data from the previous post for 20 year periods in the past. Here’s the list from players active in 1964:

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Al Kaline19593776Yes
Vada Pinson19633552
Mickey Mantle19563491Yes
Orlando Cepeda19623220Yes
Bill Mazeroski19613174Yes
Hank Aaron19583173Yes
Frank Robinson19603155Yes
Eddie Mathews19563141Yes
Ron Santo19643089Yes
Tony Kubek19612900
Carl Yastrzemski19642676Yes
Zoilo Versalles19642661
Roberto Clemente19592560Yes
Johnny Callison19632426
Brooks Robinson19612420Yes
Willie Davis19642347
Gus Bell19532277
Duke Snider19512232Yes
Curt Flood19622214
Nellie Fox19522200Yes
Tommy Davis19632191
Harvey Kuenn19552177
Dick McAuliffe19642171
Roy McMillan19542099
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 1964, through 1964.

So 24 players in 1964 and reached their 24 season with at least 2000 PA. Thirteen of them made the Hall of Fame as a player. Note that pre draft, there was a baby bonus rule that required teams to keep high priced amateurs in the majors the first year they signed. That’s why Al Kaline didn’t play in the minors.

Here’s the table for 1984.

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Robin Yount19804142Yes
Cesar Cedeno19753491
Rusty Staub19683302
Buddy Bell19762945
Butch Wynegar19802920
Rickey Henderson19832891Yes
Ted Simmons19742888Yes
Claudell Washington19792840
Garry Templeton19802764
Alan Trammell19822743Yes
Eddie Murray19802726Yes
Rick Manning19792672
Lloyd Moseby19842667
Terry Puhl19812587
Tim Raines19842559Yes
George Brett19772556Yes
Tim Foli19752538
Chris Speier19742522
Willie Randolph19792471
Greg Luzinski19752451
Alfredo Griffin19822429
Jason Thompson19792392
Jack Clark19802381
Carney Lansford19812320
Bob Horner19822277
Larry Parrish19782254
Jeff Burroughs19752227
Chet Lemon19792211
Derrel Thomas19752201
Gary Carter19782168Yes
Steve Sax19842140
Harold Baines19832137Yes
Sixto Lezcano19782106
Ryne Sandberg19842092Yes
Bill Buckner19742086
Lou Whitaker19812074
Greg Gross19772058
Glenn Hubbard19822041
Roy Howell19782040
Lee Mazzilli19792023
Jim Rice19772022Yes
Pete Rose19652011*
Darrell Porter19762009
Andre Dawson19792002Yes
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 1984, through 1984

The expansion era brought in more young players, 44 meeting the criteria. Twelve made the Hall of Fame with an asterisk for Pete Rose.

Here’s the table for 2004:

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Ken Griffey Jr.19943606Yes
Alex Rodriguez20003515*
Roberto Alomar19923349Yes
Andruw Jones20013312
Adrian Beltre20033161Yes
Ruben Sierra19903130
Edgar Renteria20003038
Ivan Rodriguez19962868Yes
Albert Pujols20042728NE
Juan Gonzalez19942440
Gary Sheffield19932419
Carlos Baerga19932388
Barry Bonds19892388*
Cristian Guzman20022329
Eric Chavez20022276
Troy Glaus20012199
John Olerud19932186
Jimmy Rollins20032169
Derek Jeter19982147Yes
Adam Dunn20042112
Sammy Sosa19932052*
Robin Ventura19922022
Ben Grieve20002019
Scott Rolen19992011Yes
Johnny Damon19982006
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 2004, through 2004

This group contains 25 players. Six were elected to the Hall of Fame, Albert Pujols is not yet eligible, while A-Rod, Bonds, and Sosa will not go in for PED use. So ten deserving out of 25.

Combing the results, we get 31 players elected to the hall, one who will go in on the first ballot, and four with asterisks. Let’s put Pujols in, so 32 out of 93 get elected, 34.4% and 38.7% if you include asterisks.

July 21, 2024

King of the Hill

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After the Padres held the Guardians to one hit on Saturday, they are trying to do one better on Sunday. Michael King just completed six no-hit innings, walking one and striking out six batters. He is working efficiently, with 70 pitches thrown. The Padres lead 2-0.

Update: Angel Martinez bloops a single to break up the no-hitter leading off the seventh inning.