Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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154 FXUS64 KMOB 252320 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A diurnal convective cycle is expected to repeat again during the period, with current convection diminishing early this evening, then showers and storms redevelop across the area mainly from late morning into the afternoon hours on Friday. MVFR conditions will typically accompany the showers and storms, and some patchy fog is possible overnight. Winds become light and variable early this evening, then a mostly northeast to east flow around 5 knots prevails on Friday, except for becoming southerly near the coast in the afternoon. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 The forecast area remains in a broad southwest flow aloft between a trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to the southeast. Disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will continue to move through the southwest flow with precipitable water values between 2-2.2 inches. Showers and storms will end this evening with a few showers lingering near the coast tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Friday with the highest coverage during the afternoon across southwestern areas. A few of the stronger storms have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph. Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees. /13 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A rather typical summertime pattern is expected through the weekend as upper level ridging remains centered over the local area. Down at the surface, high pressure remains anchored out over the western Atlantic which will result in a light onshore flow across the region and an abundance of deep layer moisture. This moisture combined with diurnal forcing will keep daily chances for scattered to perhaps locally numerous showers and storms in the forecast this weekend. As we head into early next week, the ridge aloft will begin to retreat westward and eventually become centered over the southwestern US. At the same time, an upper trough will begin to take hold over much of the eastern US. This pattern will place the local area within a northwest flow aloft by early next week with moisture remaining plentiful through the period. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue with convection generally starting near the coast in the morning and spreading inland through the afternoon hours. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out during the period with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main concerns. These storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers as well which could lead to heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns if storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July with highs reaching into the lower and middle 90s each afternoon and lows falling into the 70s. However, the increasing boundary layer moisture combined with these temperatures will result in heat index values approaching heat advisory thresholds by late in the weekend and early next week. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected Friday night with a low risk following Saturday through Monday. /14 MARINE... Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A light mainly easterly wind Friday morning will become light southeasterly to southerly in the afternoon through the weekend, then shifting southwesterly on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected each day. Conditions will remain favorable for the development of waterspouts over the next few days. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 90 74 90 75 90 75 90 / 60 70 40 70 20 70 30 70 Pensacola 75 89 77 89 78 90 77 89 / 60 60 40 70 40 70 40 70 Destin 78 90 79 90 80 90 79 89 / 60 60 40 70 50 70 50 70 Evergreen 71 91 72 92 72 91 73 89 / 40 40 20 70 30 70 30 70 Waynesboro 70 90 71 92 72 92 73 92 / 40 50 20 70 20 70 20 70 Camden 70 89 71 91 72 90 72 87 / 30 30 10 70 30 70 30 70 Crestview 72 92 73 92 73 92 73 90 / 60 60 30 70 30 70 30 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob