846
FXUS64 KMOB 252041
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

The forecast area remains in a broad southwest flow aloft between
a trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to the southeast.
Disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will continue to move
through the southwest flow with precipitable water values between
2-2.2 inches. Showers and storms will end this evening with a few
showers lingering near the coast tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop on Friday with the highest coverage during the
afternoon across southwestern areas. A few of the stronger storms
have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to as
high as 105 degrees. /13

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

A rather typical summertime pattern is expected through the
weekend as upper level ridging remains centered over the local
area. Down at the surface, high pressure remains anchored out over
the western Atlantic which will result in a light onshore flow
across the region and an abundance of deep layer moisture. This
moisture combined with diurnal forcing will keep daily chances for
scattered to perhaps locally numerous showers and storms in the
forecast this weekend. As we head into early next week, the ridge
aloft will begin to retreat westward and eventually become
centered over the southwestern US. At the same time, an upper
trough will begin to take hold over much of the eastern US. This
pattern will place the local area within a northwest flow aloft by
early next week with moisture remaining plentiful through the
period. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue with
convection generally starting near the coast in the morning and
spreading inland through the afternoon hours. A few stronger
storms cannot be ruled out during the period with gusty winds and
frequent lightning being the main concerns. These storms will
likely be efficient rainfall producers as well which could lead to
heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns if storms
repeatedly move over the same areas. Temperatures will be rather
typical for late July with highs reaching into the lower and
middle 90s each afternoon and lows falling into the 70s. However,
the increasing boundary layer moisture combined with these
temperatures will result in heat index values approaching heat
advisory thresholds by late in the weekend and early next week.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected Friday night with a
low risk following Saturday through Monday. /14

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

A light mainly easterly wind Friday morning will become light
southeasterly to southerly in the afternoon through the weekend,
then shifting southwesterly on Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms can be expected each day. Conditions will
remain favorable for the development of waterspouts over the next
few days. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  90  74  90  75  90  75  90 /  60  70  40  70  20  70  30  70
Pensacola   75  89  77  89  78  90  77  89 /  60  60  40  70  40  70  40  70
Destin      78  90  79  90  80  90  79  89 /  60  60  40  70  50  70  50  70
Evergreen   71  91  72  92  72  91  73  89 /  40  40  20  70  30  70  30  70
Waynesboro  70  90  71  92  72  92  73  92 /  40  50  20  70  20  70  20  70
Camden      70  89  71  91  72  90  72  87 /  30  30  10  70  30  70  30  70
Crestview   72  92  73  92  73  92  73  90 /  60  60  30  70  30  70  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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