Is FX Becoming The New HBO?

When it comes to producing television praised by critics and mainstream audiences alike, it’s hard to beat HBO. From The Sopranos and Game of Thrones to Sex and the City and Veep, the network has established itself as the name to know when it comes to prestige TV. But in the age of peak TV, it’s hard to keep that title, and one network is coming after HBO at full speed — FX.

Though HBO came into the Golden Globes with 14 nominations, it left with no awards. FX was the undisputed winner of this network battle, winning four awards, which is more than any other network in 2017. You could argue that the Globes is just a tiny awards show in the vast and complicated world of television greatness, and you’d be correct, but I think FX’s victory speaks to more than just a better-than-usual year. It shows the cracks of one network and the rise of another.

HBO isn’t as impressive as it once was.

Once upon a time in the ’90s and ’00s, a subscription to Home Box Office guaranteed you were going to watch prestige television. Sure, for every The Wire there was a failed series like Luck, but those mistakes were often quickly brushed under the rug and not able to tarnish the network’s reputation. However, the current climate of peak TV has done a lot to change this. When every network and streaming service from Hulu to Lifetime is capable of creating programming compelling enough to receive awards attention and critical acclaim, HBO has transitioned from the undisputed leader in television to a leader. That’s a big difference.

Also, in this current TV climate, mistakes stick, and HBO has had a fair amount of them. HBO’s proclivity to show women being raped has almost been think-pieced to death, its lack of diversity has been explored numerous times, and the premiere of 2016’s Vinyl is almost universally considered a mistake. HBO is no longer the unflappable king of TV like it once was, which leaves room for competition.

No other networks can match HBO and FX’s quality.

So why do I think FX has the best chance of taking HBO’s well-worn crown? It’s because both networks have proven they’re able to consistently deliver high quality content. Prime Video, with its originals that swing between hits and misses, doesn’t feel established enough to compete with HBO yet, and Netflix is far too inconsistent for its originals to have a definable level of quality. For every The Crown, there’s a critically despised show like Fuller House. HBO will have at least 15 original series premiering 2017, and FX will have 13. Of those shows, you can expect a certain consistency in quality.

FX is just getting started with its critically-beloved originals, while HBO has been coasting for a while.

Let’s look at the tentpoles of these two networks. On HBO’s side, you obviously have Game of Thrones, Silicon Valley, Veep, Girls, and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver. With the exceptions of Last Week Tonight, all of those shows will be either ending or likely thinking about ending soon. Game of Thrones is already galloping toward a conclusion that will only last a couple more seasons, and Girls ends this year. The network’s comedy leaders, Veep and Silicon Valley, are still going strong, but Veep is entering its sixth season with a former Veep who’s been booted out of the White House, and as Silicon Valley enters its fourth season, it also seems to be drawing toward a satisfying, if not dark, conclusion.

Meanwhile, FX has The Americans, the Ryan Murphy empire that is American Horror Story and American Crime Story, Fargo, Louis C.K.’s shows (Louie, Baskets, and Better Things), and now Atlanta. Sure, the award-winning The Americans is coming to an end, but FX is currently packed with newer critically-praised series. Fargo, which is finally returning this year, is only in its third season and has no discernible end in sight, and the network’s Louis C.K.-produced shows, Baskets and Better Things, have already garnered a lot of praise as well as a surprise Emmy win. FX has also made an active push to include more diverse stories. The network recently signed an exclusive creative deal with Donald Glover and has been pursuing work from more diverse creators, actors, and directors. FX is far from perfect, but the network is making an active effort toward diversity, and so far it’s paying off.

HBO did have several 2016 successes I haven’t mentioned yet, including Westworld, Issa Rae’s Insecure, Sarah Jessica Parker’s Divorce, and the Riz Ahmed-led The Night Of. However, of those four, The Night Of was a miniseries and there have been no announcements of a second season, Westworld is taking a year off, Divorce was divisive to both viewers and critics, and Insecure was sadly ignored. HBO also premiered a polarizing series from Danny McBride, Vice Principals. I could definitely see Westworld and Insecure later becoming powerhouses for the network, but as we enter 2017, there’s room for another network to step up before that happens.

Both networks will be losing major shows this year.

As I mentioned before, Westworld won’t be returning until 2018. Likewise, two of FX’s pillars, Ryan Murphy’s American Crime Story and Donald Glover’s Atlanta, also won’t be returning until next year. However the biggest blow will again go to HBO — though Game of Thrones will be returning this summer, it will premiere after the cutoff date for the 2017 Emmys. That means the drama categories, which used to be a sure-fire win for the network, are now all wide open.

Both HBO and FX will be relying on new shows to boost their award chances, but again, FX’s shows may have more long-term potential. HBO has already premiered Paolo Sorrentino’s The Young Pope, which is currently in production for a second season. It will also be premiering the Reese Witherspoon, Nicole Kidman, and Shailene Woodley-led miniseries Big Little Lies and its Judd Apatow and Pete Holmes series Crashing. There’s no telling how the divisive The Young Pope will fare, but in a TV scene packed with dramedies about comedians trying to make it, it’s unlikely Crashing will stand out too much. Also, though it looks incredible, Big Little Lies is again a miniseries with a limited shelf life. HBO’s 2017 line-up looks great, but it’s not favorable to the longevity the network needs to keep its crown.

FX, on the other hand, is premiering Legion, a promising-looking superhero show from Noah Hawley. The network will also be premiering its crown jewel of 2017 — Ryan Murphy’s FEUD: Bette and Joan. Like many Ryan Murphy shows, though FEUD is technically a miniseries, it will be part of an anthology series, setting up FX with even more critically acclaimed shows.

Simply put, at the same time HBO is approaching a gap in its critically-praised programming, FX is loading up its slate with promising series from beloved creators, and it’s not letting up. There’s still a chance HBO will remain the king of prestige television. However, I think it’s going to be a closer fight than we’ve seen in the past, and it’s all thanks to FX.